(2023-05-16) Fielding Outcomes

Uncertainty Project: Fielding Outcomes. When we make decisions in the face of uncertainty, we are making a “bet” on how the future will turn out. When the future arrives, we have a chance to take stock, to assess whether this outcome can teach us anything about how we make our decisions. (Thinking in Bets)

If we’re honest, how much effect did our decision have on the outcome? How much did external factors (not considered in the decision) affect the outcome?

did we just get lucky?

This is how we close the loop on decision making. The learning starts with this attempt to “field” the outcome into what Annie Duke calls the “second bet”.

This second decision is whether we attribute the result to skill (in which case we have a learning opportunity), or luck (in which case we don’t).

This decision around the second bet is rarely clear cut, however

But despite the challenge, it is critical that we make a choice, to close the loop. Otherwise, we suffer from what Duke calls “resulting”, where all outcomes are considered to be the direct effect of our decisions, good or bad. This hampers our learning, and amplifies the negative effects of many cognitive biases.

it’s easier to think objectively about this ambiguous question (of skill vs. luck) when you treat it as a second bet

this challenge of developing a new habit of fielding outcomes gets easier when you can enlist the help of your peers. Holding decision making retrospectives with your leadership teams (and forming communities of practice around the evolution of your decision architecture).