Optimistic Near Future Vision

My vision coming from 2011-04-27-OptimisticNearFutureVision...

• for fiction, see backlinks plus Contemporary Heroic Instructional Fiction
• hah started this in 2011,didn't even consider climate change? Or is that implied in "no collapse"? Is that pointless magical thinking?

Micro: LeanFamily, LifestyleDesign

• MultipleIncomeStreams, FreeRangeKids

Also inspired by FractallyGenerativePatternLanguage, NetworkEconomy

Constraints:

• near future - 10-20yrs
• no magic (free food)
• no Collapse, though FederalGovernment reduced (defense, non-core departments)
• hmm what Huge Inventions do I expect?

Gas $8/gal (aka non-Cheap Oil). So imports reduced and more-expensive, but not gone.

FederalGovernment reduced (defense, non-core departments)

• CityRegion governance becomes more important - Holon

Commodity hard goods still mass-manufactured. Though more domestically.

Retail Future

• AmaZon winning at commodities
• local/Small Retail is more about experiences
  • restaurants, coffee shops
  • craft shops, studio spaces

More LocalFood: more people (10% of pop?) making it in Family Farm?

Suburbs reduced, more people in CitySize 50k UrbanVillage (PopulationDensity not quite Queens: 20k/sqmi) clusters along Commuter Train lines.

• MunicipalNet
• FreeCity?
• MixedUse property in center.
• Family Farming surrounding.
• NeighborHood/CommunityCenter: ProductOrientedUnschooling, HackerSpace, CoWorking

BigCos keep dying. Not being replaced by new ones. Still have them for those mass-manufacturing areas, but hit maturity and low-margin. More people have to be FreeAgent

• current most-common jobs at Employment

People reduce expenses

• UrbanVillage instead of Suburb RealEstate, Commute
• Use less HealthCare (improve PhysicalFitness), have Catastrophic HealthInsurance
• Less CollegeEducation, more Lifelong Learning

Software used daily - 2016-02-19-RaoUnicornsAndBandwagons

• PIM, EverNote, NoteBook
• IssueTracker (WikiKit)
• chat/Messaging: 1-to-1, group. SlackCom, IRC, Instant Messaging...
• VirtualCompany credit allocation (Pie book)
• LiquidDemocracy
• BitCoin
• GitHub
• federated WikiWeb?
• federated TeamWiki/SoftwareForge?
• AugmentedReality

Making the above more Actionable

Taking some process from Taylor Pearson:

Vague Goal for Schooling: see Generative Schooling examples

• many SDLC
• SchoolVouchers that allow SDLC
• colleges that take Portfolio
• employers who take Portfolio

VagueGoal for Urban Village:

• more cities with 75k+ people at 20k/sqmi.
• Better city schools (more, smaller, diverse) (see prev item)

VagueGoal for NetworkEconomy

• Universal Catastrophic Health Insurance
• more anti-trust action
• less regulation on smaller companies, free agents; less Occupational Licensing

My "Means" for all these

• MyStrengths: PM/CTO team leading
• writing? Not really, small audience, I have no influence.

Update: see Aug'2021 notes/Miro-diagram at (2020-06-27) Ways To Nudge Future